Gunpowder, Treason and Plot

It’s November 5th and I am being deafened as I write by hundreds of fireworks going off all over my neighbourhood.

Some sound like bombs exploding, some boom like cannon, others issue the rat-a-tat-tat of a machine gun. A Hurlford ‘Shock and Awe’.

Kind of appropriate though when you think about it.

Tonight tens of thousands of American, and American trained Iraqi troops are massing around the town of Falluja. The anticipated big push is on. It is estimated that 5000 insurgents and terrorists, as defined by the United States of America, await the onslaught hunkered down in bombed out buildings.

Defence analysts predict heavy casualties if this comes down to hand-to-hand street fighting. In the urban environment the defender, however small in number, always holds a military advantage. These defenders might take some ironic comfort from the fact that a small band of lightly armed Jewish Poles in a similar situation in the Warsaw Ghetto took on the might of the German Wermacht for weeks.

The conflicting comments of the man who will give the official ‘go’ command sometime very soon, Iraqui Prime Minister Allawi, haven’t helped one bit.

He has been on the news three times today. The first was to advise the Fallujan rebels to quit before the storm. The second was in positive response to Kofi Annan’s plan to give the UN a shot at negotiating a peaceful solution. But the third a few hours later was to say that unfortunately it’s now too late for a negotiated peace.

An attack is inevitable.

Allawi is a placeperson Prime Minister. The hand of George W is at work, maniacally directing operations from The White House. He is flushed with his success in the recent US Presidential Elections. Bush will have already told Allawi when zero hour is to be. Tony Blair will have known weeks, if not months ago.

With the Black Watch already taking casualties at Camp Dogwood in the Sunni triangle 25 miles from Baghdad, the British public are again asking their politicians interesting questions. Like why did, and how can, this battalion size British Battle group of 850 replace the division of 8000 US troops who previously occupied this dangerous forward position?

While at Falluja the bombers will go in first, then the ground attack fighters. Next will come the helicopter gunships, as the tanks and troops move forward. Tonnes of death will rain down from the skies. Hundreds of shells and millions of rounds of ammunition will be expended. A lot will die on both sides. The rebels will go immediately into folklore.

After the 1916 Irish rebellion Britain executed its leaders in Portlaoise Prison in Dublin. The main reason for the failure of the Easter Rising was the general population did not support the Irish Republican Brotherhood. The subsequent execution of the IRB's leadership was the biggest mistake Britain made in Ireland. Plunkett, Connelly, Pearse etc. became heroes overnight. Irish citizenry all embraced their dream. The 1919-21 War of Independence followed, resulting in the partition of Ireland. Partition has driven the Troubles in Northern Ireland ever since.

The world will live with the hellish consequences of Falluja for generations to come.